The Largest Israeli Anti-War Protests Since the War Began. Police Beat Them Anyway.

Hundreds of Israelis gathered at Habima Square in Tel Aviv on March 28. Twenty-one were arrested. Police used force to disperse the crowd. It was the largest anti-war protest in Israel since the Iran campaign began 29 days ago.

93% of Jewish Israelis support the war. These are the 7%.

The 100,000+ reservist no-shows suggest the opposition is larger than the protest turnout indicates. The distinction: not showing up for duty is passive resistance. Marching at Habima Square is active. In a country where "supporting the troops" is social bedrock, active anti-war protest carries personal and professional costs that passive refusal does not.

The protesters' demands: immediate ceasefire negotiations, accountability for civilian casualties in Iran (including Minab), and an investigation into the Mossad ProPublica leaks that questioned the war's premises. The Mossad dissidents who leaked assessments contradicting the government's justification are the institutional parallel to the street protests: the intelligence community and the public are arriving at the same conclusion through different channels.

The TASE is at record highs. The shekel is strong. Markets are pricing a short, victorious war. The protesters are pricing the opposite: a war that expands into Lebanon while Washington winds down, leaving Israel fighting alone against proxies that Iran's 31 Mosaic Defense units control independently.

The budget vote is scheduled for Sunday night (March 29) into early Monday. If it passes (likely, ~62 votes), the coalition survives. If it fails, automatic dissolution. The protesters at Habima Square know this. They're not trying to stop the budget. They're establishing the record that dissent existed, for the accountability that will come after the war ends and the TASE corrects.

FAQ

Is anti-war protest illegal in Israel?

Not technically. But the emergency security measures since February 28 give police broad authority to disperse gatherings deemed threats to public order. The 21 arrests at Habima were for "disturbing the peace" and "unlawful assembly." The charges are designed to discourage, not convict. Most will be dropped. The arrest itself is the punishment.

Could protests grow to 2023 judicial overhaul levels?

Unlikely while the war is active. The 2023 protests drew 500,000+ because the threat (judicial overhaul) was domestic and immediate. The Iran war has 93% support. Protests grow when the costs become visible: body bags, economic damage, or an obvious military failure. None have materialized at scale. If the Vance-Netanyahu split leads to American disengagement and Israeli casualties rise, the calculus changes.

Why do markets ignore the protests?

Markets price probabilities, not principles. The probability that 7% of the population stops a war with 93% support is near zero. The probability that the budget passes and Netanyahu's coalition survives is near 100%. Markets follow the latter. The protesters are right about the long-term trajectory (the war's costs exceed its benefits) but wrong about the short-term (the coalition holds, the war continues, defense stocks rise).